中國(guó)儲(chǔ)能網(wǎng)訊：太陽(yáng)能和其他能源的結(jié)合是未來(lái)清潔能源、可再生能源和經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)惠的最佳選擇。
根據(jù)國(guó)際可再生能源機(jī)構(gòu)的報(bào)告，太陽(yáng)能光伏將成為可再生能源領(lǐng)域最大的行業(yè)市場(chǎng)。
2016年，可再生能源成為58個(gè)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體中成本最低的電力形式。美國(guó)金融咨詢和資產(chǎn)管理商Lazard公司今年公布的平衡成本分析報(bào)告（LCOE 11.0）顯示，太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能發(fā)電成本（每兆瓦時(shí)發(fā)電46至53美元）低于煤炭和天然氣（60-68美元）。
太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電是2016年全球新能源增長(zhǎng)最快的電力來(lái)源，首次超過(guò)其他所有發(fā)電形式的增長(zhǎng)。據(jù)國(guó)際能源署（IEA）的調(diào)查，在強(qiáng)大的太陽(yáng)能光伏市場(chǎng)背后，可再生能源增加的電力去年占全球電網(wǎng)新增電力的三分之二。除此之外，到2017年底，太陽(yáng)能的發(fā)電量將超過(guò)核電。
東亞地區(qū)更環(huán)保的電網(wǎng)
今年11月，全球綠色增長(zhǎng)研究所（GGGI）在韓國(guó)首爾舉辦了第一次能源論壇，GGGI成員國(guó)分享了他們的能源轉(zhuǎn)化經(jīng)驗(yàn)。德國(guó)的太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能在去年夏天突破了該國(guó)所有能源使用量的85％。
迅速增長(zhǎng)的可再生能源正在迅速取代德國(guó)的核能，而其煤炭在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中仍然起著關(guān)鍵作用。另一方面，在英國(guó)，煤炭在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的使用在短短十年間迅速?gòu)?0％下降到了9％，取而代之的是廉價(jià)的太陽(yáng)能和海上風(fēng)能，而其核能仍然起著關(guān)鍵作用。
澳大利亞首都堪培拉迅速實(shí)現(xiàn)太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能投資目標(biāo)，到2020年將實(shí)現(xiàn)其可再生能源為100％的目標(biāo)，到2030年實(shí)現(xiàn)零排放，而其國(guó)家層面的目標(biāo)則更為溫和。
在韓國(guó)，目前可再生能源只占該國(guó)電力生產(chǎn)的2％，其中燃煤電廠和核電廠的發(fā)電量分別為40％和30％。但是韓國(guó)政府最近表示，在2030年之前把可再生能源發(fā)電比例提高到了20％。
韓國(guó)政府計(jì)劃在其全國(guó)各地建立可再生能源協(xié)調(diào)中心，確保每個(gè)村莊的太陽(yáng)能系統(tǒng)，采用地方政府部門領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的項(xiàng)目，其中包括海上風(fēng)能，可再生能源項(xiàng)目實(shí)現(xiàn)公用事業(yè)規(guī)?？纱_?？善浣?jīng)濟(jì)可行性。
實(shí)現(xiàn)20％的目標(biāo)對(duì)韓國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)是否有些雄心勃勃，還是為了應(yīng)對(duì)環(huán)境和氣候的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)？新政府的雙重目標(biāo)是韓國(guó)成為無(wú)核社會(huì)，同時(shí)解決霧霾空氣的污染問(wèn)題，現(xiàn)在韓國(guó)相關(guān)部門正在積極爭(zhēng)論。
實(shí)現(xiàn)這兩個(gè)目標(biāo)都需要減少核能，以及采用煤和柴油來(lái)產(chǎn)生電力。這個(gè)確實(shí)是一個(gè)雄心勃勃，甚至是令人生畏的挑戰(zhàn)，但在能源和交通運(yùn)輸部門正在經(jīng)歷非常迅速的過(guò)渡時(shí)期，這并非不可能完成。
而對(duì)于正在進(jìn)行的能源轉(zhuǎn)型，全球各地的可再生能源和電動(dòng)汽車發(fā)展的速度和深度令人驚訝。這是許多國(guó)家政府制定的首要任務(wù)，而這正在對(duì)傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)部門造成嚴(yán)重的影響。
而有的國(guó)家在公用事業(yè)規(guī)模的可再生能源拍賣中太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能的價(jià)格創(chuàng)下新低，傳統(tǒng)的化石燃料動(dòng)力能源公司為此付出了沉重代價(jià)。例如，德國(guó)最大的公用事業(yè)公司E.ON公司在上個(gè)月的虧損為9億美元，這是其剩余市值的一半。
難怪可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型讓傳統(tǒng)電力企業(yè)感到恐慌，各國(guó)政府也在考慮是否要保護(hù)這些電力企業(yè)。
對(duì)傳統(tǒng)發(fā)電廠（特別是煤炭和核電）投資巨大的國(guó)家確實(shí)需要一大筆資金來(lái)收購(gòu)這些資產(chǎn)。在幾年前建成的最廉價(jià)的能源形式的燃煤電廠成為能源公司沉重的負(fù)擔(dān)。
在波恩COP23會(huì)議上，二十個(gè)國(guó)家的新建煤電聯(lián)盟宣布，他們將在2030年之前完全淘汰其能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的煤炭。該聯(lián)盟希望在2018年聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化會(huì)議之前有五十個(gè)成員。
這需要思維方式的真正改變。到2030年，韓國(guó)是否能夠不采用煤炭發(fā)電？目前看來(lái)這似乎是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的，但請(qǐng)記住，在可再生能源比當(dāng)今更昂貴的時(shí)期，英國(guó)也發(fā)生了類似的變化。那么為什么不會(huì)在韓國(guó)發(fā)生？
當(dāng)然有一些挑戰(zhàn)。例如，這種能源轉(zhuǎn)型是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致更多的失業(yè)？在化石燃料行業(yè)，尤其是煤炭領(lǐng)域的工作崗位確實(shí)正在迅速流失。例如在德國(guó)，大部分與煤炭有關(guān)的工作已經(jīng)消失，但與此同時(shí)，可再生能源行業(yè)創(chuàng)造了更多就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。
德國(guó)前綠色黨議員兼能源觀察集團(tuán)（Energy Watch Group）總裁Hans-Josef Fell表示，到2050年全球能源向100％可再生能源電力系統(tǒng)過(guò)渡的過(guò)程可以創(chuàng)造3700萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，從2015年起增長(zhǎng)率超過(guò)90％。
在快速的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)型中，確實(shí)會(huì)失去一些工作崗位，但是更多新的綠色工作崗位正在形成，并需要對(duì)勞動(dòng)力進(jìn)行教育和再培訓(xùn)，但最終為企業(yè)和個(gè)人帶來(lái)了許多新的機(jī)會(huì)。
預(yù)計(jì)到2050年，太陽(yáng)能領(lǐng)域?qū)⒊蔀槟茉葱袠I(yè)大部分就業(yè)的部門
另一個(gè)問(wèn)題是可再生能源價(jià)格太高，這還要取決于公民是否會(huì)支持向可再生能源快速轉(zhuǎn)型。在澳大利亞，堪培拉已經(jīng)承諾了到2020年達(dá)成100％的可再生能源目標(biāo)，引領(lǐng)國(guó)家氣候變化行動(dòng)，同時(shí)為朝陽(yáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)造新的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。
在澳大利亞民眾的全力支持下，澳大利亞政府正在領(lǐng)導(dǎo)這場(chǎng)綠色科技革命。當(dāng)澳大利亞首都領(lǐng)地（ACT）政府首次宣布計(jì)劃在2020年之前立法采購(gòu)100％可再生能源的目標(biāo)時(shí)，其態(tài)度很謹(jǐn)慎。
第一個(gè)項(xiàng)目的重點(diǎn)是為學(xué)校、教堂、社區(qū)中心，以及住宅提供屋頂太陽(yáng)能補(bǔ)貼。結(jié)果，所有的學(xué)校和十分之一的家庭屋頂上安裝了太陽(yáng)能。
隨后，在全面提升社區(qū)意識(shí)的同時(shí)，ACT政府轉(zhuǎn)向了公用事業(yè)規(guī)模的風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能投資，以及采用儲(chǔ)能電池穩(wěn)定電網(wǎng)。澳大利亞大型太陽(yáng)能的成本在短短幾年內(nèi)就減半了。
雖然引入可再生能源最初確實(shí)提高了堪培拉的能源價(jià)格，但對(duì)其居民的調(diào)查顯示，隨著綠色環(huán)保意識(shí)的提高，當(dāng)?shù)鼐用裨敢鉃榭沙掷m(xù)能源支付更多的費(fèi)用。展望未來(lái)，堪培拉的能源價(jià)格將是澳大利亞最低的。
在其100％可再生能源戰(zhàn)略取得成功之后，2016年堪培拉的計(jì)劃得到進(jìn)一步發(fā)展，致力于在2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零碳排放。
對(duì)于那些無(wú)法提供化石燃料和集中式電網(wǎng)的國(guó)家，例如大多數(shù)非洲國(guó)家和太平洋地區(qū)的大多數(shù)小島國(guó)，其覆蓋率低達(dá)10％-20％，而可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型是一個(gè)絕佳的機(jī)會(huì)。
當(dāng)而其替代方案是價(jià)格昂貴的柴油發(fā)電，這既可以為電網(wǎng)供電，也可以在停電期間作為備用電源，而太陽(yáng)能與電池存儲(chǔ)相結(jié)合已經(jīng)成為價(jià)格最低的能源形式。
這意味著對(duì)于非洲和太平洋國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，基于“太陽(yáng)能+電池”的離網(wǎng)或微型電網(wǎng)是一場(chǎng)革命，能帶來(lái)成本更低的能源，就像不到10年前的手機(jī)革命。
像韓國(guó)這樣已經(jīng)充分開(kāi)發(fā)傳統(tǒng)能源部門的國(guó)家，特別具有更多的核能和化石燃料發(fā)電廠，其能源轉(zhuǎn)型無(wú)疑具有挑戰(zhàn)性。
與此同時(shí)，韓國(guó)還有一些非常顯著的優(yōu)勢(shì)，比如優(yōu)異的國(guó)家電網(wǎng)、先進(jìn)的智能電網(wǎng)技術(shù)以及全球先進(jìn)的太陽(yáng)能電池和電池生產(chǎn)商。在電力中斷的時(shí)候，人們的觀點(diǎn)變化非常迅速。
如2030年韓國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)可再生能源20％這樣的目標(biāo)，目前看起來(lái)具有挑戰(zhàn)性，但只是其短短五年內(nèi)朝著正確方向邁出的第一步。
A new world in which solar and storage becomes the cheapest form of energy
By Frank Rijsberman
Friday 15 December 2017
Here’s why a combination of solar power and energy are the best bet for a future energy supply that is clean, renewable, and affordable.
Solar photovoltaic is one of the biggest employers in the renewable energy sector, according to a report by the International renewable Energy Agency. : Image: Shutterstock
Renewable energy became the cheapest form of electricity in 58 emerging economies last year. This year, the 11th Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis (LCOE 11.0) showed that solar and wind energy generation costs (at $46 to $53 per megawatt-hour of generation) easily beat coal and gas (at $60-68).
Solar power was the fastest-growing source of new energy worldwide in 2016, outpacing the growth in all other forms of power generation for the first time. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), on the back of a strong solar PV market, renewable energy accounted for two-thirds of new power added to the world’s grid last year. In addition to this, solar energy is set to surpass nuclear power by the end of 2017.
A greener grid for East Asia
In November this year, the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) organized its first energy forum in Seoul at which GGGI Member countries shared their energy transformation experience. In Germany, on one sunny breezy Sunday last summer, solar and wind broke a record 85 per cent of all energy used in the country.
The rapidly growing renewable energy sector is quickly replacing nuclear energy in Germany – while coal is still playing a key role in the energy mix. In the UK, on the other hand, the use of coal in the energy mix has rapidly fallen from 50 to 9 per cent in just ten years, replaced by cheap solar and offshore wind energy - while nuclear energy is maintaining a key role.
The Australian capital city, Canberra, has rapidly achieved the solar and wind investments to shift to 100 per cent renewable energy by 2020, and is now moving to zero emissions by 2030, while the national targets are much more modest.
In the Republic of Korea, renewable energy currently accounts for just 2 per cent of the country’s electricity production, with coal-fired and nuclear plants generating 40 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively. However, Korea’s new Moon Jae-in government has recently increased the target for the share of renewables in power generation to 20 per cent by 2030.
The Korean government plans to set up a renewable energy coordination center in every region; secure a solar system in each village; adopt projects led by local authorities, including offshore wind turbines; and secure economic feasibility of renewable energy through utility-scale renewable energy projects.
Is the 20 per cent target too ambitious to achieve in Korea – or is it too modest to deal with the environmental and climate challenges? The new government’s twin objectives for Korea to become a nuclear free society while also solving the “fine dust” air pollution problems is now actively debated in Korea.
Doing both requires reducing nuclear energy, as well as the use of coal and diesel fuel for electricity and transportation. Truly an ambitious, even daunting, set of challenges – but not impossible during a time when both the energy and transportation sectors are experiencing very, very rapid transition.
The speed and depth of the ongoing energy transformation, to renewable energy and to electric mobility, is certainly surprising many around the world. It is a top priority for many governments – making and breaking coalitions – and it is causing disruption in traditional sectors of the economy and employment.
As one country after the next sees record breaking low prices for solar and wind in auctions for utility scale renewable energy, the conventional fossil-fuel powered energy companies pay the price. E.ON, Germany’s largest utility, for example, had to write off $9Bn in losses last month, half of its remaining market capitalization.
No wonder the renewable energy transformation scares the conventional power players and has governments consider whether to protect them.
Countries with large investments in conventional power plants – particularly coal and nuclear – do indeed have a big bill to pay for their stranded assets. Coal-fired power plants that were the cheapest form of energy when constructed only a few years ago risk become albatrosses around energy companies’ necks.
In Bonn, at COP23, a new Power-Past-Coal Alliance of twenty countries announced that they will completely phase out coal from their energy mix before 2030. The Alliance hopes to have fifty members before the 2018 UN COP24 climate change conference.
That requires a real change in mindset. Is it imaginable that Korea Powers Past Coal by 2030? It may seem unrealistic today, but remember that a similar change in the UK just happened, over a shorter period, during a time when renewables were more expensive than today. So why not in Korea?
There are some challenges of course. For example, will this energy transition lead to job losses? Jobs are indeed being lost rapidly in the fossil fuel industry, particularly coal. In Germany, for example, most coal related jobs have already been lost – but at the same time, many more jobs were created in the renewable energy industry.
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According to Hans-Josef Fell, a former German parliamentarian for the Green party and current President of Energy Watch Group, the global energy transition to a 100 per cent renewable electricity system can create 37 million jobs by 2050, up by more than 90 per cent from 2015.
As in any rapid technology transition, jobs will indeed be lost, but more new, green jobs are being created, requiring education and re-training of the workforce, but ultimately leading to many new opportunities for businesses and individuals.
Solar is expected to make up a majority of jobs in the energy sector by 2050. Image: GGGI
Another question is whether renewable energy is too expensive and whether citizens will support a rapid transition to renewables. In Australia, Canberra has powered forward to 100 per cent renewable energy by 2020, leading national action on climate change while creating new jobs in sunrise industries.
The ACT government is leading this green technology revolution in Australia with the full support of its citizens. When the ACT government first announced its plans to legislate a target of sourcing 100 percent renewable energy by the end of this decade, it was careful to engage the community.
The first programs focused on subsidies for rooftop solar for schools, churches, community centers and residences. As a result, all schools and one home in 10 are now equipped with solar on the roof.
Subsequently, and with full community awareness created, ACT government turned to utility scale wind and solar investments, and batteries to stabilize the grid. The costs of large scale solar in Australia has halved in just a few years.
While the introduction of renewables did indeed initially raise energy prices for Canberra, surveys of residents show that as awareness increased, so did the willingness of the citizens to pay more for sustainable energy. Going forward, the price of energy in Canberra will be among the lowest in the nation.
Following the success of the 100 per cent renewables strategy, in 2016 Canberra went a step further and committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
For countries that could not provide electricity to all their citizens with fossil fuel and a centralized power grid – such as most African countries and most small island states in the Pacific with coverage rates as low as 10-20 per cent – the renewable energy transition is a wonderful opportunity.
When the alternative is expensive diesel-generated electricity, either powering the grid or as back-ups during power outages, solar energy combined with battery storage is already the cheapest form of energy, as documented in Lazard’s 11th levelized cost of energy report that came out last month.
That means that for countries in Africa and the Pacific, off-grid, or mini-grid electricity based on “solar+batteries” is a revolution that can bring affordable energy to all citizens, just like the mobile phone revolution did less than ten years ago.
The energy transition is undoubtedly challenging for countries like the Republic of Korea that have fully developed conventional energy sectors – particularly for the owners and operators of the nuclear and fossil fuel power plants, equipment and machinery.
At the same time, Korea has some very significant advantages, such as an excellent national power grid, advanced smart grid technology, and some of the world’s most advanced producers of solar cells and batteries. During times of disruption our perspectives change very rapidly.
Targets such as the Korean 20 per cent renewables by 2030, that appear so challenging today, will probably be seen as only a first step in the right direction in just five years from now.
Frank Rijsberman is the director-general of the Global Green Growth Institute. This article was written exclusively for Eco-Business.
http://www.eco-business.com/opinion/a-new-world-in-which-solar-and-storage-becomes-the-cheapest-form-of-energy/
