中國(guó)儲(chǔ)能網(wǎng)訊：隨著其他地方收入的下降,容量市場(chǎng)對(duì)于電池儲(chǔ)能而言正變得越來(lái)越重要。頻率響應(yīng)市場(chǎng)的飽和導(dǎo)致2023年其他收入來(lái)源較2022年下降了73%。容量市場(chǎng)提供的長(zhǎng)期合同收入為電池提供了一些新的機(jī)會(huì)——尤其是那些擁有高價(jià)值合同的儲(chǔ)能電池。
The Capacity Market is becoming more important for battery energy storage following falling revenues elsewhere. The saturation of frequency response markets has caused revenues from other sources to decrease by 73% in 2023 compared to 2022. The long-term, contracted revenue provided by the Capacity Market has provided some respite for batteries - especially those with the highest value contracts.
那么,這些合同的收入對(duì)英國(guó)電池儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)的重要性有多大?不同系統(tǒng)之間有多少差異?
So, how important have revenues from these contracts become for battery energy storage systems in Great Britain? And how much does this vary by system?
2023年,電池在頻率響應(yīng)、批發(fā)市場(chǎng)和平衡機(jī)制中的平均收入為每年5.1萬(wàn)英鎊/MW?？紤]到容量市場(chǎng)收入,這一數(shù)字上升至每年6.5萬(wàn)英鎊/MW。
In 2023, batteries earned an average ￡51k/MW/year across frequency response, wholesale markets, and the Balancing Mechanism. This rose to ￡65k/MW/year, including Capacity Market revenues.
1. 2023年12月,在頻率響應(yīng)價(jià)格下降的情況下,容量市場(chǎng)貢獻(xiàn)了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的30%的總收入。
1. In December 2023, the Capacity Market contributed a record 30% of total revenue following falling frequency response prices.
2. 當(dāng)前的容量市場(chǎng)收入來(lái)自一系列拍賣(mài)。較老的T-4拍賣(mài)和最新的T-1拍賣(mài)為贏得合同的電池帶來(lái)了最多的收入。
2. Current Capacity Market revenues come from a range of auctions. Older T-4 auctions and the latest T-1 auctions have returned batteries that won contracts the most revenues.
3. 在過(guò)去三年中,隨著容量目標(biāo)的提高和傳統(tǒng)發(fā)電廠(chǎng)的退役,容量市場(chǎng)價(jià)格有所上漲。
3. Prices have increased over the past three years as capacity targets went up and older generating units face retirement.
2023年12月,容量市場(chǎng)收入占電池所有收入的30%
Capacity Market revenues accounted for 30% of all battery revenues in December 2023
GB BESS指數(shù)跟蹤頻率響應(yīng)、批發(fā)交易和平衡機(jī)制的收入。2023年,該指數(shù)平均為每年5.1萬(wàn)英鎊/MW。加入容量市場(chǎng)收入后,這個(gè)數(shù)字增加至每年6.5萬(wàn)英鎊/MW。
The GB BESS Index tracks revenues from frequency response, wholesale trading, and the Balancing Mechanism. In 2023, the index averaged ￡51k/MW/year. The addition of Capacity Market revenues increases this to ￡65k/MW/year.
在2023年12月,收入跌至目前的最低點(diǎn)。所有市場(chǎng)的平均電池收入為每年4.2萬(wàn)英鎊/MW,容量市場(chǎng)占30%。盡管容量市場(chǎng)收入與2022年12月相似,但這與2022年12月的10%份額形成對(duì)比。
In December 2023, revenues fell to their lowest point to date. Average battery revenues across all markets was ￡42k/MW/year, with the Capacity Market accounting for 30%. This compares to a 10% share in December 2022, despite Capacity Market revenues being similar.
然而,不同電池的容量市場(chǎng)收入并不相同,并且因贏得合同的拍賣(mài)而大不相同。這些將面臨不同的價(jià)格和降額系數(shù)。
Capacity Market revenues are not the same across all batteries, however, and vary significantly by the auction in which contracts were won. These will have been subjected to different prices and derating factors.
容量市場(chǎng)中的價(jià)格一直在上漲
Prices have been on the rise in the Capacity Market
T-1和T-4拍賣(mài)中的價(jià)格近年來(lái)都在上漲。這種上漲影響2021年或以后開(kāi)始交付的T-1合約。在T-4中,這影響了2023年及以后開(kāi)始的合同。
Prices in both T-1 and the T-4 auctions have increased in recent years. This rise impacts T-1 contracts starting delivery in 2021 or later. In the T-4, this has impacted contracts starting in 2023 and later.
在T-1拍賣(mài)中,這些更高的價(jià)格主要是 容量目標(biāo)的大幅提高。2021和2022年交付年的目標(biāo)容量同比增長(zhǎng)了33%。T-4拍賣(mài)中的目標(biāo)保持相對(duì)不變,但現(xiàn)有發(fā)電機(jī)組的退役意味著越來(lái)越依賴(lài)新的容量項(xiàng)目。這些來(lái)自一個(gè)更高的價(jià)格,推高了清算價(jià)格。
In the T-1 auction, these higher prices have come due to higher capacity targets. There was a 33% increase in target capacity year-on-year for delivery years 2021 and 2022. Targets in the T-4 auctions have remained relatively unchanged, but the retirement of existing generators means an increasing reliance on new-build sites. These have come at a higher price, driving the clearing price up.
電池儲(chǔ)能的降額因子持續(xù)下降
Derating factors for battery energy storage have continued to decrease
近年來(lái),價(jià)格上漲的同時(shí),電池儲(chǔ)能的降額系數(shù)持續(xù)下降。2017年的拍賣(mài)引入了相對(duì)于儲(chǔ)存期限分層的降額系數(shù)。這些旨在代表短周期儲(chǔ)存在潛在的系統(tǒng)壓力事件期間為系統(tǒng)提供的價(jià)值。
While prices have risen in recent years, derating factors for battery energy storage have continually decreased. The 2017 auctions introduced tiered derating factors relative to storage duration. These aim to represent the value short-duration storage provides to the system during potential system stress events.
這一變化意味著,而2016年T-1拍賣(mài)中1小時(shí)電池可以以其接入容量的96%參與交易,這一數(shù)字在2017年的拍賣(mài)中下降到40%。在T-4拍賣(mài)中,1小時(shí)單元的降額系數(shù)下降到2021年交付的36%。在2017年拍賣(mài)輪次的初始降低之后,降額系數(shù)繼續(xù)下降,盡管降低速度較慢。
This change meant that while 1-hour batteries in the 2016 T-1 auction could be contracted for 96% of their connection capacity, this dropped to 40% in the 2017 auction. In the T-4 auction, 1-hour units saw their derating factors fall to 36% for delivery in 2021. After the initial reduction from the 2017 auction round, derating factors have continued to decrease, although at a lower rate.
原有的T-4合約和更新的T-1合約為電池提供了最大價(jià)值
Older T-4 contracts and newer T-1 contracts provide the most value for batteries
容量市場(chǎng)合同的有效價(jià)值可以通過(guò)將清算價(jià)格乘以降額系數(shù)來(lái)計(jì)算。這些降額系數(shù)的引入意味著2021年和2022年開(kāi)始的T-4合同的電池看到的價(jià)值平均下降了80%,而與2020年開(kāi)始的合同相比。
The effective value of Capacity Market contracts can be calculated by multiplying the clearing price by derating factor. The introduction of these derating factors meant that batteries with T-4 contracts beginning in 2021 and 2022 saw an average 80% reduction in value compared to contracts beginning in 2020.
與此同時(shí),2023年開(kāi)始交付的T-4合同的價(jià)格穩(wěn)步上漲導(dǎo)致這些合同的價(jià)值增加,盡管降額系數(shù)在減少。在T-1中,近期的高價(jià)格明顯彌補(bǔ)了降額系數(shù)的減少。隨著價(jià)格飆升,2021/22年交付的T-1合同比2020/21年交付的T-1合同的價(jià)值高45倍。
Meanwhile, the steady increase in price for T-4 contracts beginning delivery from 2023 has led to an increase in value for these contracts despite reducing derating factors.In the T-1, recent high prices have significantly outweighed the derating factor reductions. T-1 contracts for delivery in 2021/22 delivered 45 times as much value as T-1 contracts for delivery 2020/21 following a jump in prices.
2023年12月有34%的電池容量簽訂了容量市場(chǎng)協(xié)議
34% of battery capacity was contracted in Capacity Market agreements in December 2023
2023年12月有效的容量市場(chǎng)合同下的電池總計(jì)3.3GW的額定功率,占英國(guó)所有電池容量的94%。然而,這些合同的降額容量為1.1吉瓦。平均而言,2023年12月有效的容量市場(chǎng)協(xié)議下的電池簽約額定功率的34%——但這在不同系統(tǒng)之間差異很大。
Batteries with Capacity Market contracts active in December 2023 totaled 3.3 GW based on rated power, 94% of all battery capacity in Great Britain. However, the derated capacity of these contracts is 1.1 GW. On average, batteries with Capacity Market agreements active in December 2023 were contracted for 34% of their rated power - but this varies significantly system by system.
一些電池能夠作為需求側(cè)響應(yīng)(DSR)贏得合同,后者通常具有較高的降額系數(shù)。這些傳統(tǒng)上是用戶(hù)側(cè)的單元,可以通過(guò)減少需求為電網(wǎng)增加容量。
Some batteries have been able to win contracts as Demand Side Response (DSR), which typically has higher de-rating factors. These traditionally are behind-the-meter units that can add capacity to the grid by reducing demand.
