中國儲能網(wǎng)訊：德國創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)機(jī)制正處于十字路口，盡管德國的太陽能招標(biāo)市場正在蓬勃發(fā)展,但其限制性設(shè)計(jì)導(dǎo)致了光伏發(fā)電與儲能協(xié)同項(xiàng)目的數(shù)量較少,限制了其經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。
Germany’s innovation tender is at a crossroads. While solar auctions are booming in Germany, their restrictive design has led to lower volumes of co-located solar and storage projects, limiting their economic benefit.
為確保創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)的長期成功并為用戶創(chuàng)建一個具有更高成本效益的能源系統(tǒng),共享儲能項(xiàng)目的開發(fā)商需要看到更強(qiáng)的業(yè)務(wù)案例和投資回報。允許儲能系統(tǒng)從電網(wǎng)充電并從電力批發(fā)市場參與中獲得額外收入,將改善項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)性,并有潛力降低德國日益增加的可再生能源棄風(fēng)棄光成本。行業(yè)領(lǐng)先的儲能技術(shù)和智能資產(chǎn)性能管理軟件可以使資產(chǎn)所有者最大化其市場投資回報。
To secure the long-term success of the innovation tenders and create a cost-effective energy system for ratepayers, the developers of co-located energy storage projects need to see stronger business cases and ROIs. Allowing storage systems to charge electricity from the grid and earn additional revenue from wholesale market participation will improve project economics and has the potential to reduce the ever-increasing cost of renewable curtailment in Germany. Best-in-class storage technology and intelligent asset performance software can then enable asset owners to maximize their market-based returns.
自2020年以來,德國聯(lián)邦網(wǎng)絡(luò)署(BNetzA)一直舉辦每半年一次的容量招標(biāo),目標(biāo)是建設(shè)額外的混合發(fā)電,包括與基于電池的儲能系統(tǒng)相連的光伏電站和風(fēng)電場。該機(jī)構(gòu)已確定了將波動的可再生能源生產(chǎn)與儲能技術(shù)相結(jié)合的需求,以更有效地集成綠色能源并改善電網(wǎng)管理。通過創(chuàng)新招標(biāo),它計(jì)劃于2028年前向分布式儲能系統(tǒng)開發(fā)商授予高達(dá)4GWh的合同。
Since 2020, Germany’s Federal Network Agency, Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA), has been holding bi-annual capacity auctions targeting the construction of additional hybrid power generation, including solar parks and wind farms connected to battery-based energy storage systems. The agency has identified the need to combine fluctuating renewable energy production with storage technology to integrate green energy more efficiently and to improve electricity grid management. Through the innovation tenders, it plans to award contracts for up to 4 GWh to developers of distributed energy storage systems by 2028.
招標(biāo)機(jī)制本質(zhì)上是有缺陷的,因?yàn)樗辉试S儲能參與所有可用的能源和輔助服務(wù)市場。這使業(yè)務(wù)案例依賴于上網(wǎng)電價,而不是讓業(yè)主最大化投資回報。2022年12月和2023年5月的招標(biāo)輪次證明了這一點(diǎn),在潛在的800MW中,它只授予了不到100MW的協(xié)同項(xiàng)目。然而,隨著上網(wǎng)電價的增加,最近的一次招標(biāo)在9月份顯示出更大的興趣,授予全部400MW的容量。最大設(shè)備規(guī)模從20MW增加到100MW也可能促成了對創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)機(jī)制的重新關(guān)注。具有更好規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)的大型裝置能夠參與其中并在2023年5月和9月的招標(biāo)中獲得批準(zhǔn)。
The auction mechanism is inherently flawed, as it does not allow energy storage to also participate in all available energy and ancillary services markets. This makes the business case dependent on the feed-in premium rather than allowing owners to maximise revenues. This was exposed by auction rounds in December 2022 and May 2023 which awarded less than 100 MW of co-located assets from a potential 800 MW that was auctioned. However, as feed-in premiums increased, the most recent auction in September saw a greater interest, awarding the entire 400 MW volume. The increase of the maximum asset size from 20 MW to 100 MW may have also contributed to the renewed interest in the Innovation Tender. Larger installations with better economy of scale were able to participate and were awarded in both the May and September auctions of 2023.
在行業(yè)內(nèi),固定上網(wǎng)電價轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦邮袌鲆鐑r的決定在2022年12月第一次招標(biāo)輪次失敗前備受爭議。上網(wǎng)電價結(jié)構(gòu)不如監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)BNetzA確立的絕對上限重要。這兩項(xiàng)新規(guī)則都是在通脹壓力(主要因?yàn)蹩颂m戰(zhàn)爭導(dǎo)致)開始對能源行業(yè)造成影響的時候?qū)嵤┑?可再生能源開發(fā)商面臨前所未有的高昂材料成本。隨著通脹率觸發(fā)利率上升,可再生能源項(xiàng)目的資本成本也在上升。因此,項(xiàng)目融資的第二個主要變量發(fā)生了重大變化,需要在招標(biāo)設(shè)計(jì)中考慮進(jìn)去。
Within the industry, the switch from a fixed feed-in premium to a floating market premium prior to the first failed tender round in December 2022 was hotly debated. Less important than the structure of the premium was the new absolute cap established by the regulator BNetzA. Both new structure and the cap were implemented at a time when inflationary pressures, largely resulting from the war in Ukraine, were starting to take their toll on the energy industry, with renewable energy developers facing unprecedentedly high costs of materials. As inflation levels triggered interest rate increases, capital costs for renewable projects also increased. Hence, the second main variable in project financing saw major changes that needed to be accounted for in the tender design.
意識到有必要干預(yù),BNetzA于2023年3月宣布將混合光伏供電電池系統(tǒng)的最高上網(wǎng)電價提高25%至9.18歐分/KWh。2023年5月的招標(biāo)獲得了更多報價,但仍不足以令更多項(xiàng)目通過。巴登-符騰堡州太陽能和氫能研究中心(ZSW)開展的研究表明,2025年投入運(yùn)行的混合發(fā)電廠的平均成本為10.40歐分/KWh,遠(yuǎn)高于調(diào)整后的電價。
Realising the need for intervention, BNetzA announced in March 2023 a 25% increase in the maximum feed-in-tariff for hybrid pv-powered battery systems to 9.18 ct/kWh. The auction in May 2023 yielded more bids but was still insufficient for more projects to go forward. Research carried out by The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) showed that average costs for a hybrid power generation plant to be taken into operation in 2025 were 10.40 ct/kWh, well above the adapted tariff.
創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)在德國能源轉(zhuǎn)型中的角色
The role of innovation tenders in the German energy transition
當(dāng)前的能源危機(jī)使得向可再生能源的智能集成的需求重新成為關(guān)注重點(diǎn),而德國的綠色發(fā)電建設(shè)正在蓬勃發(fā)展。到2023年10月底,德國已見證近12GW的新光伏裝機(jī)容量的安裝,已經(jīng)超過了9GW的年度目標(biāo)。2024年和2025年的年度目標(biāo)甚至更高,分別達(dá)到13GW和20GW。
The current energy crisis brought the need for smart integration of renewables into renewed focus with the build-out of green generation booming in Germany. By the end of October 2023, Germany has witnessed the installation of nearly 12 GW of new PV capacity, already outpacing the annual target of 9 GW. Annual targets for 2024 and 2025 are even higher, reaching 13 GW and 20 GW respectively.
與此同時,系統(tǒng)中的高比例太陽能導(dǎo)致了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的負(fù)定價時段。例如,5月28日德國出現(xiàn)了8小時連續(xù)負(fù)定價,最高達(dá)130歐元/MWh。隨著更多光伏發(fā)電的集成,負(fù)定價將成為歐洲電力系統(tǒng)的常態(tài)。
At the same time, high shares of solar on the system have led to record-breaking periods of negative pricing. On May 28, for example, Germany saw eight hours of consecutive negative pricing, peaking at around -130€/MWh. As more solar is being integrated, negative pricing will become a common feature in the European power system.
這就是為什么并網(wǎng)發(fā)電+儲能系統(tǒng)可以創(chuàng)造增量價值。它們可以在光伏發(fā)電量最高時存儲電力,并在可再生電量最低時釋放給消費(fèi)者。并網(wǎng)可再生發(fā)電和儲能系統(tǒng)減少了能源市場的波動性和價差,限制了電網(wǎng)擁堵和成本高昂的棄風(fēng)棄光,并使整個系統(tǒng)更加可持續(xù)和高效。
This is where co-located generation + storage systems create incremental value. They enable the electricity generated by PV to be stored when the production is the highest and release it to consumers when renewable electricity shares are at the lowest. Co-located renewable generation and storage systems reduce volatility and price spreads on energy markets, limit congestions on the power grid and costly curtailment, and make the overall system more sustainable and efficient.
智能招標(biāo)設(shè)計(jì)變革的必要性
The Need for Smart Tender Design Changes
儲能的收入機(jī)會正在那里。不幸的是,創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)的當(dāng)前設(shè)計(jì)不允許儲能獲得這些機(jī)會。
The revenue opportunities for storage are there. Unfortunately, the current design of the innovation tender does not allow storage to access them.
傳統(tǒng)的解決方案是進(jìn)一步提高創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)上限,使其完全體現(xiàn)成本上升。這將給項(xiàng)目開發(fā)商帶來更高的付費(fèi)保證,并提高項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)性。弊端是這可能增加上網(wǎng)電價付款,增加終端用戶即納稅人的成本。然而,在獨(dú)立儲能資產(chǎn)快速增長的國家,依賴監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)來確定合適的上網(wǎng)電價不應(yīng)該成為主要做法。
The traditional solution would be to further increase the innovation tender premium cap to a price level that fully recognizes the increased system costs. This would result in higher payment guarantees for project developers and better project economics. On the downside, it would potentially increase pay-outs under feed-in regimes, increasing the cost for taxpayers. However, dependence on the regulator to define the right level of a feed-in premium should not be the modus operandi in a country that is building market-based stand-alone storage assets at an increasing pace.
目前,創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)下合同的儲能系統(tǒng)只能存儲并網(wǎng)可再生發(fā)電資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的電力,不能從主網(wǎng)充電。BNetzA實(shí)施這一規(guī)則是為了避免混合綠色電力和化石燃料電力,限制灰色電力的“綠化”。這一規(guī)則也被視為一種保障,以防止創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)下獲得的儲能資產(chǎn)參與利潤豐厚的頻率調(diào)節(jié)市場(FCR),在那里它會與完全商業(yè)化的發(fā)電資產(chǎn)競爭。
Today, energy storage systems contracted under the innovation tenders can only store electricity generated by the co-located renewable generation assets and cannot charge from the main grid. BNetzA has put this rule in place to avoid blending green electricity with fossil-based power, limiting the greenwashing of grey electricity. This rule is also seen as a safeguard to exclude storage assets awarded under the innovation tenders to participate in the lucrative frequency regulation market (FCR), where it would compete as a subsidized asset against fully merchant assets.
不幸的是,目前政策制定損害了儲能技術(shù)的全部潛力,以及其整合可再生能源到電網(wǎng)和提供急需靈活性的能力。結(jié)果,太陽能+儲能系統(tǒng)在一年中的大部分時間閑置,例如在夜間和低發(fā)電冬季。取而代之的是,燃?xì)夂腿济喊l(fā)電廠被啟用以填補(bǔ)電力供應(yīng)缺口。如果德國仍然希望在2030年將80%的總發(fā)電量來自可再生能源源,并在2035年前在電力行業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放,這一狀況就需要改變。
Unfortunately, the policy in its current shape undermines the full potential of energy storage technology, its ability to integrate renewable energy into the power network, and provide much-needed flexibility. In consequence, solar + storage systems sit unused for a large part of the year, for example, at night and during low-production winter months. Instead, gas and coal-fired power plants are ramped up to fill electricity supply gaps. This needs to change if Germany still wants to reach its goal of sourcing 80% of gross power consumption from renewable energy sources by 2030 and reach net-zero in the electricity sector by 2035.
儲能系統(tǒng)的高效利用還將降低網(wǎng)絡(luò)成本,因?yàn)楫?dāng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)過載無法集成更多可再生能源時,電網(wǎng)運(yùn)營商目前正在向資產(chǎn)所有者支付大量的棄風(fēng)棄光費(fèi)用。僅2022年,德國就棄風(fēng)棄光了8萬億瓦時的可再生能源,主要是風(fēng)電。這是巨大的綠色電力損失，然而這些電力完全可以充電傳輸?shù)絻δ芟到y(tǒng)中，同年德國電網(wǎng)設(shè)施阻塞造成的費(fèi)用損失高達(dá)42.5億歐元
Efficient use of energy storage systems will also lower network costs as grid operators currently pay substantial curtailment fees to asset owners when the network is overloaded and cannot integrate more renewables. In 2022, 8 TWh of renewable power, mainly wind, was curtailed in Germany alone. This is an enormous loss of green electricity which could have been transmitted into storage systems. The cost of congestion of the German grid reached €4.25bn in the same year.
允許儲能資產(chǎn)在批發(fā)市場中優(yōu)化不僅會減少電網(wǎng)阻塞和棄風(fēng)棄光情況,還將提高批發(fā)市場的效率,改善創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)性,從而降低納稅人和電力消費(fèi)者的成本。Fluence正積極參與(與行業(yè)利益相關(guān)者和協(xié)會共同)推動這些監(jiān)管變革。
Allowing energy storage assets to optimize in wholesale markets will not only limit congestions and curtailments, but also increase the efficiency of wholesale markets, improve innovation tender project economics, and thereby reduce costs to taxpayers and electricity consumers alike. Fluence is actively engaging - jointly with industry stakeholders and associations - to drive those regulatory changes.
最大化并網(wǎng)資產(chǎn)的回報率
Maximizing Returns for Co-located Assets
除了招標(biāo)設(shè)計(jì)和技術(shù)合作伙伴外,資產(chǎn)使用壽命期間的性能優(yōu)化是影響項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)性的第三大因素。
Optimization of asset performance during its lifetime is the third major factor, apart from tender design and technology partners, that impacts project economics.
并網(wǎng)可再生能源和儲能資產(chǎn)的項(xiàng)目復(fù)雜性更高,需要業(yè)主和運(yùn)營商仔細(xì)平衡收入最大化和成本控制。資產(chǎn)管理團(tuán)隊(duì)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)通常與處理的數(shù)據(jù)量有關(guān)。對于由不同技術(shù)和OEM的多個發(fā)電廠組成的許多投資組合,傳統(tǒng)的人工數(shù)據(jù)收集方法會成為約束,迫使團(tuán)隊(duì)尋找現(xiàn)代資產(chǎn)性能管理(APM)工具。
Projects with co-located renewables and storage assets have increased levels of complexity, requiring their owners and operators to carefully balance revenue maximization and cost control. The challenges asset management teams face are typically tied with the amounts of data handled. With many portfolios composed of several plants of varying technologies and OEMs, traditional methods of manual data collection become a constraint, compelling teams to look for modern asset performance management (APM) tools.
APM使混合可再生能源和儲能項(xiàng)目的業(yè)主能夠發(fā)掘隱藏的潛在性能問題,從而最小化停機(jī)時間并提高運(yùn)營效率和整體資產(chǎn)性能。隨著APM技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展,人工智能(AI)在性能監(jiān)測和完全優(yōu)化方面發(fā)揮著樞紐作用。AI改進(jìn)APM的一些特點(diǎn)與快速分析大量數(shù)據(jù)以發(fā)現(xiàn)團(tuán)隊(duì)通過分析SCADA信號無法捕捉的復(fù)雜模式和異常的能力相關(guān)。
APM empowers owners of hybrid renewable and storage projects to unearth hidden latent performance issues, thereby minimizing downtime, and enhancing operational efficiency and overall asset performance. As APM technologies evolve quickly, artificial intelligence (AI) plays a pivotal role not just to monitor performance but fully optimize it. Some of AI’s improvements on APM correlate to the capacity to swiftly analyze large amounts of data to unveil intricate patterns and anomalies that may be difficult or impossible for teams to capture by sifting through SCADA signals.
例如,AI通過預(yù)測電池溫度何時會高于預(yù)期來支持儲能資產(chǎn)的運(yùn)營商。該模型預(yù)測在給定運(yùn)行條件下最大電池溫度應(yīng)該是多少,并在測量溫度超過該值一定甚至最小的閾值或呈現(xiàn)令人擔(dān)憂的趨勢時發(fā)出警告。類似的也適用于提前預(yù)測可再生發(fā)電資產(chǎn)的潛在故障。
For instance, AI supports operators of storage assets by anticipating when cell temperatures may get higher than expected. The model predicts what the maximum cell temperature should be under the given operating conditions and issues warnings if the measured temperature exceeds that value by a certain, even minimal, threshold or exhibits a worrying trend. Similar goes for early prediction of potential malfunction of renewable generation assets.
結(jié)論
Conclusion
德國的創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)是該國能源轉(zhuǎn)型的重要基石,因?yàn)樗兄诩罡咝Ъ纱罅坎▌拥木G色電子進(jìn)入德國電力市場。支持可再生能源的建設(shè)與儲能相結(jié)合還將增強(qiáng)供給安全并為日益分散的能源系統(tǒng)引入靈活性選擇。
Germany’s Innovation Tenders are important cornerstones of the country’s energy transition as they serve to incentivize efficient integration of the vast amounts of intermittent green electrons set to enter the German power market. Supporting the build-out of renewable energy in combination with energy storage will also enhance security of supply and introduce flexibility options to an increasingly decentralized energy system.
然而,招標(biāo)的監(jiān)管框架需要更好地適應(yīng)當(dāng)前的商業(yè)環(huán)境。隨著通脹壓力給項(xiàng)目業(yè)務(wù)案例帶來風(fēng)險,需要更深入的措施來全面改革創(chuàng)新招標(biāo)機(jī)制。
However, the tender’s regulatory framing needs to be better adapted to the current commercial circumstances. With inflationary pressures putting project business cases at risk, more far-reaching measures are needed to overhaul the innovation tender mechanism.
智能招標(biāo)設(shè)計(jì)允許儲能系統(tǒng)從電網(wǎng)充電并從批發(fā)市場參與中獲得額外收入,這將改善項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)性,并有可能降低德國日益增加的可再生能源棄風(fēng)棄光的成本。同時,項(xiàng)目所有者和開發(fā)商也需要與富有經(jīng)驗(yàn)和值得信賴的技術(shù)提供商合作,以最小化風(fēng)險并最大化收益。
Smart tender design, allowing storage systems to charge electricity from the grid and earn additional revenue from wholesale market participation, will improve project economics and has the potential to reduce the ever-increasing cost of renewable curtailment in Germany. At the same time, it is down to project owners and developers to work with experienced and trusted technology providers to minimize risks and maximize returns.
