中國(guó)儲(chǔ)能網(wǎng)訊：
譯者說：這么多年來，交通電氣化的發(fā)展一直進(jìn)進(jìn)退退，隨著大規(guī)模應(yīng)用清潔新能源的應(yīng)用以及電動(dòng)汽車的普及，這次交通電氣化改革浪潮比以往任何一次更貼近現(xiàn)實(shí)。我們要從方案設(shè)計(jì)、工程應(yīng)用、場(chǎng)景落地等多角度估算未來電氣交通化實(shí)現(xiàn)的可能性。
我們需要從以前充電設(shè)施部署、公共事業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)、客戶電動(dòng)車運(yùn)用中得到一些經(jīng)驗(yàn)。
We need to learn from prior experiences deploying charging infrastructure and early utility efforts to design and implement customer EV programs.
Bryan Jungers是E Source公司的電動(dòng)車方向的主管。
Bryan Jungers is director of mobility at E Source.
說到交通電氣化，大多數(shù)公共設(shè)施在過去幾十年中一直處于快速修建或者等待建設(shè)的狀態(tài)。雖然電動(dòng)汽車并不是新事物，市場(chǎng)也為其普及做過很多次嘗試，但已經(jīng)有太多次錯(cuò)誤的開始，以至于公用事業(yè)公司很難確定這次是真的。作為一名長(zhǎng)期的行業(yè)觀察者，我相信這次是真的，電動(dòng)汽車與充電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施之間雞生蛋還是蛋生雞的關(guān)系問題已經(jīng)解決：因?yàn)閮烧叨夹枰M快發(fā)展。
When it comes to transportation electrification, most utilities have been in a hurry-up-and-wait mode for the past few decades. While EVs are not new, nor is the pressure to prepare for them, there have been so many false starts that it’s hard for utilities to be sure that this time it’s for real. As a long-time industry watcher, I believe it is for real, and the chicken-and-egg problem of electric vehicles vs. charging infrastructure is settled: both are needed ASAP.
一個(gè)新模式
A new paradigm
如果讓你從頭開始建立一個(gè)新的電網(wǎng)和公用事業(yè)，會(huì)怎么樣？它看起來和我們今天的情況一樣嗎？有了新的信息和后見之明，它可能會(huì)很不相同。
What if you could build a new grid and utility from the ground up? Would it look anything like what we currently have today? With new information and the benefit of hindsight, chances are it would not.
我們需要用新視角來規(guī)劃現(xiàn)代電網(wǎng)，以實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的電氣化、脫碳化和公平化目標(biāo)。我們需要為一個(gè)與現(xiàn)在截然不同的未來做準(zhǔn)備，同時(shí)借鑒之前部署充電設(shè)施、公用事業(yè)、電動(dòng)車普及應(yīng)用的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。
We need to bring new vision to the work of planning for a modern grid that can support electrification, decarbonization and equity goals for the economy and society. We need to prepare for a future that looks very different from the present while learning from prior experiences deploying charging infrastructure and early utility efforts to design and implement customer EV programs.
以下是我們從過去的交通電氣化努力中獲得的一些經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)：
Below are some of the lessons we’ve learned from past efforts to electrify transportation:
不要把所有雞蛋放在一個(gè)籃子里
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket
沒有任何一個(gè)解決方案提供商能夠獨(dú)自實(shí)現(xiàn)整個(gè)交通系統(tǒng)的電氣化。聯(lián)邦基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目是大型的、昂貴的，并且耗時(shí)數(shù)年。管理、報(bào)告和協(xié)調(diào)的要求非常廣泛。大型電動(dòng)車充電設(shè)施部署項(xiàng)目若想要取得成功，需要由多個(gè)解決方案提供商和其他利益相關(guān)方組成的精英團(tuán)隊(duì)密切合作。
No single solution provider can electrify the entire transportation system on its own. Federal infrastructure projects are large, expensive and take years to roll out. The management, reporting and coordination requirements are extensive. For large EV charging infrastructure deployment projects to be successful, they require a competent team of multiple solution providers and other stakeholders working together closely.
降低投資和項(xiàng)目設(shè)計(jì)中技術(shù)與供應(yīng)商的關(guān)聯(lián)，對(duì)盡可能多向解決方案供應(yīng)商和客戶開放，從而使你的投資和項(xiàng)目面向未來。
Future-proof your investments and programs by designing them to be technology- and vendor-agnostic, open to as many solution providers and customer choices as possible.
每件事都比你預(yù)期的時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)，成本更高
Everything takes longer and costs more than you expect
在政府支持電網(wǎng)現(xiàn)代化的第一波投資中，我們大大低估了部署從智能電表到電動(dòng)汽車充電樁等新技術(shù)所需的時(shí)間和精力。雖然建立 "競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力"的項(xiàng)目提案，緊迫的時(shí)間表和緊張的預(yù)算很有誘惑力，但在實(shí)踐中這幾乎不是一個(gè)好主意。
During the first wave of government spending in support of grid modernization, we greatly underestimated how much time and effort is required to deploy new technologies, from smart meters to EV charging stations. While it is tempting to establish “competitive” project proposals with aggressive timelines and tight budgets, this is almost never a good idea in practice.
特別是，不要忘記仔細(xì)考慮運(yùn)營(yíng)和維護(hù)要求，以及前期成本。雖然總是有獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)資金可以幫助減少資本支出，但運(yùn)行和維護(hù)方面的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)幾乎是不存在的。在分布式、遠(yuǎn)程和技術(shù)設(shè)備正式開始運(yùn)營(yíng)之后。擁有一個(gè)資產(chǎn)管理計(jì)劃至關(guān)重要。
In particular, don’t forget to give careful consideration to operation and maintenance requirements and costs upfront. While there are always incentive dollars available to help reduce capital expenses, incentives for O&M are almost nonexistent. After the ribbon-cutting fanfare ends, the real work of operating distributed, remote and technical equipment begins. Having an asset-management plan is critical.
讓你的供應(yīng)方和需求方站在同一邊
Get your supply and demand sides on the same side
溝通、透明和共享數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)規(guī)劃過程至關(guān)重要，尤其是在協(xié)調(diào)供需雙方進(jìn)行規(guī)劃時(shí)。隨著交通電氣化成為人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，現(xiàn)在是公用事業(yè)部門打破內(nèi)部隔閡并倡導(dǎo)所需的時(shí)候了。
Communication, transparency and shared data are critical to the planning process, especially when it comes to harmonizing supply- and demand-side planning. With transportation electrification top of mind, now’s the time for utilities to break down internal silos and advocate for what’s needed.
我們已經(jīng)了解到，跨領(lǐng)域團(tuán)隊(duì)的有效合作和信息共享通常會(huì)帶來更好的結(jié)果，但我們可以做得更好：讓我們將這種協(xié)調(diào)擴(kuò)大到其他公用事業(yè)公司和利益相關(guān)團(tuán)體。例如，我們正在見證紐約州令人難以置信的發(fā)展，那里的公用事業(yè)公司正在分享信息，以建立一個(gè)全州的綜合能源數(shù)據(jù)資源工具。
We’ve learned that working effectively in cross-disciplinary teams and sharing information usually leads to better outcomes, but we can do even better: let’s expand this coordination across other utilities and stakeholder groups. For example, we’re witnessing incredible developments in the state of New York where utilities are sharing information to establish a statewide Integrated Energy Data Resources tool.
不要忘記向上游游去
Don’t forget to swim upstream
電動(dòng)汽車制造商每天都在做出影響公用事業(yè)的決定，但許多公用事業(yè)公司并沒有與原始設(shè)備制造商（或其他公用事業(yè)公司）在既得利益方面進(jìn)行合作，例如管理充電、充電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、車輛輸電網(wǎng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和電能質(zhì)量要求。你可以對(duì)上游發(fā)生的事情做出反應(yīng)，也可以對(duì)其施加影響力。
EV manufacturers are making decisions every day that affect utilities, but many utilities aren’t collaborating with OEMs (or other utilities) where they have a vested interest, e.g., managed charging, charging infrastructure, vehicle-to-grid standards and power quality requirements. You can react to what happens upstream, or you can influence it.
在汽車遠(yuǎn)程信息處理以及中型和重型卡車制造這兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域，公用事業(yè)公司應(yīng)積極向上游發(fā)展，以影響分銷商和制造商。我們已經(jīng)看到，在這兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域的被動(dòng)地位會(huì)導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)不符合公用事業(yè)項(xiàng)目的要求或服務(wù)電網(wǎng)的需要。
Two areas where utilities should be actively moving upstream to influence distributors and manufacturers are in vehicle telematics and medium- and heavy-duty vehicle manufacturing. We’ve seen that a reactive position in these two critical areas leads to products and services that do not match utility program requirements or service grid needs.
準(zhǔn)備好了：電池要來了
Get ready: Batteries are coming
公用事業(yè)部門正在從服務(wù)固定負(fù)荷過渡到成為清潔能源經(jīng)濟(jì)的燃料供應(yīng)商，而電池（包括固定和移動(dòng)）將從此從根本上改變電網(wǎng)。隨著裝機(jī)容量的增長(zhǎng)，電池成本繼續(xù)下降。
Utilities are transitioning from serving stationary loads to becoming fuel providers for the clean energy economy, and batteries (both stationary and mobile) will forever and fundamentally change the grid. Costs continue to come down as installed capacity grows.
隨著電池儲(chǔ)能站的總成本下降，存儲(chǔ)將成為我們電網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的一個(gè)基礎(chǔ)部分。電池將緩沖太陽能日照不足、風(fēng)力低迷和天然氣價(jià)格波動(dòng)的情況。最終，它們將取代調(diào)峰電站。
As the full cost of installing a battery power plant drops, storage will be a foundational part of our grid infrastructure. Batteries will buffer solar insolation lows, wind doldrums and volatile gas pricing. And ultimately, they’ll replace peaker plants.
標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化將是每個(gè)層面的關(guān)鍵
Standardization will be key at every level
電動(dòng)汽車是一個(gè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，包含很多方面--原始設(shè)備制造商、充電設(shè)備、公用事業(yè)、政府機(jī)構(gòu)、車隊(duì)、通信等等。特斯拉同意向競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的電動(dòng)汽車制造商開放其充電網(wǎng)絡(luò)，這或許是與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化相關(guān)的挑戰(zhàn)最明顯例子。
Mobility is its own ecosystem, and there are many moving parts — OEMs, charging equipment, utilities, government agencies, fleets, communications and more. Perhaps the most visible example of a challenge related to standardization is Tesla’s agreement to open its charging networks to rival EV makers.
兼顧不同的充電設(shè)備類型是一回事；如果你必須在組件或軟件層面上采用多種方法，那就完全是另一回事。許多重要的對(duì)話已經(jīng)在進(jìn)行；例如，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦公路管理局和美國(guó)交通部最近為清潔通道上運(yùn)行的直流快速充電器制定了新的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。
It’s one thing to juggle different charging device types; it’s another thing entirely if you have to work around multiple approaches at a component or software level. Many important conversations are already happening; for example, The Federal Highway Administration and the U.S. Department of Transportation recently set new standards for DC fast chargers operated along clean corridors.
公用事業(yè)公司需要參與并主動(dòng)引導(dǎo)對(duì)話，甚至根據(jù)需要發(fā)起對(duì)話。
Utilities need to engage and proactively shape the conversation, and even initiate them as needed.
通運(yùn)輸電氣化的時(shí)間，而不是能否實(shí)現(xiàn)的問題
The when, not if, of transportation electrification
不斷變化的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)、新政策和激勵(lì)措施將繼續(xù)影響交通電氣化發(fā)展的許多細(xì)節(jié)，但沒有改變的是，電氣化即將到來。
Changing market dynamics, new policies, and incentives will continue to influence many of the details of how transportation electrification evolves, but what isn’t changing is that it’s a coming certainty.
與以往不同的是，我們有更多的資源可以利用--從資金的涌入到更復(fù)雜的數(shù)據(jù)建模，甚至是更多公用事業(yè)公司的加入--這將使交通電氣化規(guī)劃更加高效、有效和更有影響力。
Unlike in the past, we have many more resources to work with — from an influx of funding to more-sophisticated data modeling and even the plans of peer utilities — that will make transportation electrification planning more efficient, effective and impactful.
